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The probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 94.7%. According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability that the Fed will keep the current interest rate unchanged by December is 5.3%, and the cumulative probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 94.7%. The probability of keeping the current interest rate unchanged by January next year is 4.1%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 73.7%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 22.3%.China's agricultural science and technology strength ranks first in the world, China's agricultural science and technology papers rank first in the world, China's agricultural science and technology papers rank first in the world, and China's agricultural patent competitiveness index ranks first in the world for the first time ... On December 12, 2024, the China Agricultural and Rural Science and Technology Development Forum and the conference on global agricultural research hotspots and scientific and technological competitiveness achievements were held in Beijing. At the meeting, the results reports of think tanks such as "2024 China Agricultural Science and Technology Papers and Patent Global Competitiveness Analysis" were released, and a group of bright data conveyed the vigorous trend that China's agricultural science and technology strength continued to rank first in the world.Goldman Sachs: Given that the moderate oversupply of 400,000 barrels per day and the current normalization of low valuation almost offset each other, the basic expectation is that the average price of Brent crude oil in 2025 will be $76 per barrel.

Central Bank of Peru: Future interest rate decisions will depend on inflation data and its determinants.Brazilian Senate President Pacheco: I think it is possible for the House of Representatives and the Senate to approve the financial plan this year.Reminder: Please pay attention to it during the day (the following are all Beijing time). ① At 07: 50, the outlook index of large-scale manufacturing industry in Japan in the fourth quarter is short-sighted; ② At 10: 35, Hunter, Assistant Chairman of Reserve Bank of Australia, made a speech; ③ 15:00 UK merchandise trade account for October; ④ At 16: 00, Villeroy, Governor of the European Central Bank and Governor of the Bank of France, made a speech; ⑤ 17:00 Speech by Robert Holzmann, ECB Management Committee; 6. At 18: 00, the Bundesbank announced the semi-annual forecast report, and the industrial output of the euro zone in October; ⑦ 19:00 Speech by Mario Centeno, ECB Governing Committee and Governor of Portuguese Central Bank; 8: 21: 30 US import price index in November.

From the United States to the week of December 5, foreign central banks held US Treasury bonds of-203 million US dollars, with the previous value of-6.157 billion US dollars.The Central Meteorological Observatory continued to issue the gale blue warning at 06: 00 on December 13th. It is estimated that there will be 5 winds and gusts of 6-8 in parts of central and eastern Inner Mongolia, northwestern Shanxi, northern Hebei, central Henan and southwestern Shandong from 08: 00 on December 13th to 08: 00 on December 14th. Most of the Yellow Sea, most of the East China Sea, Taiwan Province Strait, east of Taiwan Province, bashi channel, northern and central South China Sea, and Beibu Gulf will have strong winds of 7-8 grades and gusts of 9 grades.["Shanghai housing subsidy of 300,000 yuan" and "down payment of 20,000 yuan for 1.8 million hardcover existing houses"? Rumor has come] Recently, there have been a number of housing advertisements on the short video platform. The agent who released the housing claimed that he could receive the "housing subsidy" when buying a house in Shanghai, with the amount ranging from 200,000 yuan to 300,000 yuan. An intermediary declared: "Shanghai Songjiang New Town has a total price of 760,000 yuan and a housing subsidy of 250,000 yuan." "After receiving the subsidy, you can buy a 78-square-meter house with a down payment of 50,000 yuan." There is also an intermediary who claims: "The minimum payment can be only 20,000 yuan, and you can buy a finely decorated existing house with a total price of 1.8 million yuan." The reporter consulted a number of intermediaries and learned that the so-called "purchase subsidies" appearing in short videos are not government subsidies, but gimmicks. When the house-watchers consult subsidies on the spot, different intermediaries will have different calibers. Usually, there are three routines-one is to raise the price first and then lower the price. Second, the so-called "subsidy" is actually that developers lend money to buyers to pay down payment, and buyers have to pay interest. Third, the commission returned by the intermediary to the buyers is packaged as a "subsidy". (Shanghai rumor platform)